On October 13, 2009, I mentioned on various blogs (e.g Slope of Hope, Evil Speculator, etc) that I was going LONG GBPUSD from 1.5719. I jumped in because at that level, our GBPUSD RL Odds Calculator suggested 90% odds to go LONG.
And now it has been proven that was the short term bottom for GBPUSD.
And now it has been proven that was the short term bottom for GBPUSD.
I took profit on this trade at 1.6192, which was the RL level with 88% odds to go SHORT (see Scaling Table, 4th image below).
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After taking profit, I suggested a short at 1.6192. However, the GBPUSD moved above the RL resistance at 1.6192, and advanced towards our 100% RL resistance at 1.6435.
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We never know for sure how much an impulse can last, however, what we can tell you is that the odds are now heavily on the SHORT side for this cross. We suggest you to SHORT it now.
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You can see from our RL scaling table below the precise odds. You can start betting aggressively SHORT now that the GBPUSD is reaching the highest odds level.
(Note: To set the 100% RL odds level is up to your discretion, you have the rights to set 1.6830 as 100% RL level as your preference. If you want to learn how to set the 100% odds correctly, you can sign up to the RL Trading Course from here )
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In addition, looking from a CCOC (Consecutive Closes Odds Calculator) perspective, after 4 up days, we have 94.88% odds to retrace back, on the Daily time frame, which give us additional confidence to SHORT at this stage.
Target profits for this trade could be huge, if the pullback goes back down to 1.58, in the order of several hundreds %.
Target profits for this trade could be huge, if the pullback goes back down to 1.58, in the order of several hundreds %.
(click on the image to enlarge it)
To access the RL Odds Calculators for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCHF, you can sign up here
Posted by:
Wilson @ RL Team
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